Category Archives: Assorted Work

What You Need to Know About Vertigo

What You Need to Know About Vertigo

Posted on by • Posted in Assorted Work • Tagged , , , , , , • Leave a comment

Have You Experienced These Symptoms?

People describe vertigo as:

“The ground seems to undulate under me, even as I no longer feel connected to it through my legs, and then my head starts to slowly spin as if weightless and disconnecting from my body.”

“Like unexpectedly finding myself on a phantom Tilt-A-Whirl.”

“My body feels fixated in place, but my mind feels like it’s spinning in space.”

“I see the real-world surroundings on my periphery begin to move as if perhaps trying to get in sync with the action on the screen, but the movement is disjointed and makes me feel nauseated.”

“I feel as though I live in a tunnel—I can’t turn my head quickly because it makes me feel like the whole world is turning upside down—and I have to constantly just stare straight ahead or move my whole body to look to my right or my left.”

“It feels like the center of my brain, perhaps the core of my very being, is spinning in direct opposition to the movement of the world.”

Doesn’t sound like much fun, does it? Well, millions of people experience such symptoms daily, whether for the first time, periodically, or as part of a chronic condition. For some people, vertigo’s cause may be clearly diagnosed, but for many, the cause may be amorphous, multi-faceted, or—and worst of all for chronic sufferers—undiagnosed. Read on to learn more about this debilitating symptom, its numerous known causes, and the many potential exacerbating factors that may cause your head to spin.  

Vertigo—The Basics

Vertigo is the most common form of dizziness, a symptom expressed by about 20% to 30% of the general population seen in primary care settings. As a non-specific term used by patients to describe a wide range of symptoms, dizziness is broken down by physicians into four main categories:

  • Vertigo
  • Presyncope/syncope
  • Disequilibrium
  • Non-specific

Vertigo is typically described as a false sense of rotational movement or swaying that one feels in the absence of real movement. Some people mistakenly believe that vertigo is a fear of heights (acrophobia) and/or that it represents the symptoms experienced by someone with acrophobia when directly confronted by heights. This misperception may have stemmed in part from the classic Alfred Hitchcock movie, “Vertigo,” which conflated acrophobia and vertigo in both dialogue and the special effects of the time, which used a disorienting camera distortion trick to create what became known as the “Vertigo effect.” That said, those with acrophobia may be prone to a visually caused form of vertigo, according to some researchers. 

In general, people experiencing vertigo feel as if the objects around them are moving when they are not (known as objective vertigo), or that they themselves are spinning or swaying while everything else remains stationary (subjective vertigo). A third type of vertigo, referred to as pseudovertigo, involves the intense sensation of spinning inside one’s head. In many cases, though not all, a person can indicate the direction of motion when asked during a vertigo episode. The unpleasantness of vertigo usually feels worse when the episode occurs while a person is moving.  

Vertigo can present with other symptoms—most typically nausea, vomiting, profuse sweating, headache, and trouble walking—or alone. The duration of a vertigo experience can range from a few seconds to a few days, with the underlying condition generally dictating the time span. Most episodes of vertigo, though, tend to fall under the seconds to a few minutes time frame.

Many people may only experience vertigo once or a few times in their lives, perhaps a result of motion sickness, over-intoxication, an adverse drug reaction, or as the prelude to fainting, but some people suffer with ongoing, daily, periodic episodes of vertigo for weeks, months, or years on end due to an underlying condition. Those in the latter category are typically dealing with multiple other uncomfortable symptoms and are hopefully seeking or undergoing medical treatment. 

Doctors characterize vertigo in part by duration: vertigo symptoms or episodes lasting more than a day are referred to as persistent-onset vertigo. Shorter episodes of vertigo, such as those caused by motion sickness or an adverse drug reaction, are referred to as episodic-onset vertigo. The former can become a chronic condition, while the latter is usually just an incidental occurrence.

Vertigo is also classified as either peripheral or central. Peripheral vertigo describes vertigo symptoms that appear to arise due to problems with the inner ear, also known as the vestibular system. The inner ear is responsible for maintaining your sense of balance, controlling eye movement, and providing spatial orientation to coordinate movement. Inflammation caused by colds, the flu, bacterial infections, and certain drugs can affect the inner ear, leading to episodic-onset vertigo, as can physical trauma to the head. Pressure differentials in the middle ear from flying or diving can cause vertigo, and the aforementioned motion sickness also affects the inner ear, which is why it is associated with vertigo.

Several diseases and disorders that affect the inner ear can cause a persistent onset of vertigo. These include:

  • Benign paroxysmal positional vertigo (BPPV)
  • Meniere’s disease
  • Superior canal dehiscence syndrome
  • Labyrinthitis

Central vertigo refers to a persistent onset of vertigo believed to be caused by the central nervous system’s processing of vestibular signals. Central nervous system injuries affecting the brainstem or cerebellum can cause persistent-onset vertigo, among other neurologic impacts, including balance disorders, speech problems, and double vision. Diseases and disorders that can cause central vertigo include:   

  • Tumors
  • Lesions
  • Migraine headaches
  • Epilepsy
  • Parkinson’s disease
  • Multiple sclerosis
  • Cervical spondylosis
  • Chiari malformation
  • Lateral medullary syndrome
  • Stroke

Researchers also believe that some cases of vertigo may stem from psychological factors, with anxiety and panic disorder cited as the primary sources of psychogenic dizziness. Researchers are also taking a closer look at oculomotor dysfunction and other optical-related factors that may cause what is known as visual vertigo (referred to by optometrists as “see sick syndrome”). Coined in 1995, visual vertigo describes vertiginous symptoms arising from visual conflict or intense visual stimulation. The condition can be caused by diseases and disorders that are responsible for other types of vertigo, but can also develop in their absence, with an indeterminate overarching cause.

Vertigo Confounded by the Difficulty in Its Diagnosis

Because vertigo is symptomatic of so many different conditions, those suffering from chronic vertigo often have difficulty finding its cause. Misdiagnosis is not at all unusual, and some sufferers end up with successive diagnoses—from BPPV to Meniere’s to migraine-related, or vice versa—and subsequent treatments that fail to offer relief. Perhaps more worrisome are the many patients who suffer from chronic vertigo that remains undiagnosed, which is clinically referred to as idiopathic vertigo. Not a small number, given that “[d]izziness is a common symptom, potentially deriving from many categories of illness, and our diagnostic acumen and technology is not perfect,” as noted by otoneurologist Dr. Timothy C. Hain. “It is not unusual to conclude that one simply doesn’t know why a person is dizzy, even after a thorough evaluation,” he concluded.

Indeed, researchers cannot even definitively agree on the prevalence of vertigo as a condition. Just Google “prevalence of vertigo” and you’ll find a vast range of responses, including:

  • Dizziness (including vertigo) as a condition impacts between 15% to 20% of the population on an annual basis (from about 50 million to 66 million Americans).
  • A global prevalence survey of vestibular symptoms found that, among 2,987 respondents, 48.3% reported at least one symptomatic episode of vertigo, 39.1% reported at least one symptomatic episode of unsteadiness, and 35.6% at least one episode of dizziness.
  • One-year general population prevalence estimates for vertigo stand at 4.9%, with BPPV accounting for 1.6% and migrainous vertigo accounting for 0.89%.
  • Vertigo and dizziness are common symptoms in the general population, with an estimated prevalence of 20% to 56% (OK, so anywhere from 66 million to 184 million Americans in a given year).
  • Despite much research on this subject, “relatively little is known about the precise incidence and prevalence of dizziness in the general population.” While common, “it’s not as prevalent as diabetes or heart disease.”     

We could go on, but we’re not trying to disparage the medical research community—we’re just highlighting how difficult it is to pin down potential causes of this debilitating condition that impacts millions, however many millions that may be.         

And of those millions, many will remain undiagnosed or misdiagnosed in terms of cause. Dr. Hain, whose research indicates that about 15% of the population suffers from dizziness symptoms, estimates that 25% of these cases will remain undiagnosed.

The Fast-Paced Modern World’s Role in Vertigo

Whether diagnosed or undiagnosed, there is plenty of anecdotal evidence that the fast pace of today’s modern world could be causing some cases of vertigo and is a likely exacerbating factor in those struggling with chronic vertigo. Consider first that the pace of life was relatively slow, and the amount of daily stimuli our senses had to process was relatively benign for the roughly 200,000 years that man has been on earth. That all began to change in the late 1700s with the advent of the Industrial Revolution, a revolution that presaged an ever-accelerating increase in the amount and pace of external stimuli requiring daily processing by our sensory systems.

For the past 120 years or so, our vestibular systems—our inner gyroscopes—have had to adapt to ever-increasing speeds and assorted speed anomalies (such as standing still on a fast-moving train or airplane). Before the turn of the 20th century, falling off a cliff represented about the only way a person would ever move at speeds nearing or topping 100 m.p.h. Today, such speeds—and much higher—are commonplace. And yes, our physical bodies are highly adaptable and resilient, with our vestibule system perfectly capable of keeping us balanced and functioning at high speeds. Though perhaps our adaptation to such has evolved with unperceived stress to the system.

Consider also what modern man’s vestibule and ocular systems have had to evolve to process the expansive stimuli generated by our digital age. A teenager playing Halo or Call of Duty today probably processes far more outside stimuli in an hour than a teenager herding sheep did in an entire day in 1750. Again, able to handle such stimuli with apparent ease, but what of unperceived physiological stress to the systems? Unperceived, that is, other than the presentation of vertiginous symptoms in some people.

Direct research into how the fast pace of modern life may impact our inner balance and, perhaps, cause vertiginous symptoms is limited. However, recent studies independently examining visual vertigo, vestibular motion sickness, and the ocular system all suggest a link. A 2016 study—”Moving in a Moving World: A Review of Vestibular Motion Sickness”—notes that the prevalence of motion sickness was primarily limited to the small numbers of seafarers until the arrival of trains, automobiles, and planes. Add in the more recent rise in extensive exposure to the illusion of passive motion through TV, video games, 3D movies, and virtual reality, and you have likely reasons why motion sickness has become such a prevalent problem in modern life.

“All sensory signals are merged in the brainstem and cerebellum, where they are weighted according to their reliability to obtain the best estimate for the body’s own natural motion. This process also forces the brain to factor sensory signals that should be impossible in the real world (such as passive artificial motion and illusion of passive motion), resulting in sensory conflict as the brain has to solve apparently conflicting information.”

Sensory conflict that undoubtedly leads to motion sickness and related symptoms. Given that researchers in the 1980s found a strong association between the susceptibility to motion sickness and migraine headaches, it probably wouldn’t be too much of a stretch to believe that such sensory conflict could cause or exacerbate vertiginous symptoms.

Big Increase in Screentime Warrants Closer Look at Visual Vertigo 

A 2018 paper calling for more research on visual vertigo warns that inattention to this source of vertigo could be detrimental to children growing up in our excessively digital world. The author of “Visual Vertigo: Vertigo of oculomotor origin” acknowledges that many researchers and doctors question whether true “visual vertigo really exists,” but posits that excessive screen time may be causing oculomotor dysfunction, and in turn, vertigo.

Seong Chin notes that most doctors and researchers consider visual vertigo only in relation to the ocular system’s connection to the vestibular system, rather than considering the ocular system as a source of vertigo independent of the vestibular system. He suggests that excessive near-point visual fixations induced by screentime lead to prolonged pupil contraction, resulting in ischemic strain and errors in signaling between the ocular and proprioceptive systems. Chin believes this can cause vertiginous symptoms absent the vestibular system’s role, but is more focused in his research about how screentime may have a profound impact on young children with their immature neuromuscular system and developing cerebellar coordination.”  

In conclusion, Chin suggests that non-vestibular system-related visual vertigo warrants much more research because the ever-increasing amount of daily screentime is inevitably going to lead to more eye muscle strain and related conditions such as vertigo. 

Other Vestibular Pathways to Vertigo?

The theory that modern life is placing undue stress on our vestibular (and ocular) systems may not yet have been adequately researched, but it is certainly palpable. In fact, whatever impact the fast pace of modern life has on our vestibular system may be manifested beyond just causing problems relating to gyroscopic functioning. In the past few years, researchers have found significant evidence that the vestibular system may be more than just a gyroscope that maintains our balance and spatial orientation. Not only have scientists found a clear link between vestibular function and some psychiatric disorders, but they have also found neural network linkage between the vestibular system and parts of the brain involved in cognitive and emotional processing.

What this means in relation to vertigo is unclear, as scientists know only that there is a link, not whether the pathways between the vestibular system and cognitive and emotional processing are one-way or two-way. Thus, if one is feeling emotionally or cognitively unbalanced, is that feeling picked up by the vestibular system and then treated in some way similar to outside stimuli-induced unbalancing? And-or how do the cognitive and emotional processing areas of our brain address real-world, physical unbalancing that is passed on to them by the vestibular system? Whatever the answer, stress-related impacts of modern-day living picked up by one are apparently passed on to the other.

Stress that may be compounded by the unnatural need to stay seated for long periods, staring at a video screen, whether for work or entertainment. Or even physiological stressors caused by constant head-down attention to the small screen of a smartphone or tablet. Extended periods of limited movement are undoubtedly unhealthy, as evidenced in part by feeling stiff, but extensive screen time can also result in longer-term problems with posture, back, and neck, not to mention eye strain. All of these are known to contribute to or exacerbate vertiginous symptoms.  

Along with the potential physiological stress our fast-paced, modern world places on our overworked vestibular and ocular systems, we need to consider psychological stressors. The digital world allows us to be continuously bombarded with the world’s stress. Whether through television, websites, or social media platforms such as Twitter, YouTube, Instagram, and Facebook, we can (and tend to) receive a near-constant diet of data about a world in conflict and turmoil, whether by dint of war, politics, disease, crime, natural disaster, or any number of other adverse situations.

Sure, we’re also connecting with loved ones and watching cute kitty cat videos in our digital world, but conflict is ever-present. The average American probably processes more “news” in a day than an average American did in a month back in 1800. And much of our modern news is definitely disheartening and often quite distressing. Indeed, a constant diet of such should be enough to make anyone spin out.

Unfortunately, our digital world can also be somewhat addictive, whether gaming, tracking social media, or just feeling the need to get the latest COVID-19 news. And this addiction, especially among the younger generations, can create a disassociation from the real world. For some people, the disassociation is so extreme that the digital world is their real world. This is so commonplace that many younger people struggle to interact with the real world. And even if not to the extreme level, how can we successfully find equilibrium between the real world and the digital world, both of which “spin” at different speeds and with varying movement?

Along with dissociation, addiction to our digital world is changing our spatial relation to the world, as we tend to move far less and sit for longer periods than most people did just a few decades ago. Not only does this impact our posture, but so does the significant increase in small-screen use with cell phones and smartphones, which is also putting considerable strain on our backs and necks. You can easily picture the standard head-tilted-forward-and-down stance of anyone texting or looking down at their cell phone, a habit the average American engages in more than 50 times per day. But did you know that that standard cell phone stance doubles to triple the head weight strain your neck and spine have to support, with a 15-degree forward-head-down tilt adding more than 15 pounds and a 30-degree tilt adding about 30 pounds?      

Posture’s Vertiginous Role

Such changes to our posture and increased neck and back strain can cause or contribute to vertiginous symptoms. In fact, some researchers believe that many idiopathic causes of vertigo may be due to poor posture and spatial misalignment of the head. Anatomical physiologist Pete Egoscue thinks that “when the head is out of balance, either leaning to one side or jutting forward, the systems designed to maintain balance [vestibular, ocular, and proprioception] start arguing.” And when these systems send conflicting messages to the brain, “enter vertigo.”

Vertigo caused by this typically resolves on its own as the systems recalibrate to the new head position, but posture and changes in head position usually continue to get worse, causing ever-new bouts of vertigo. For some people, misaligned head position may cause fluid in the inner ear to thicken and/or develop microscopic calcifications that affect the inner ear’s cilia and can lead to longer-term vertigo. And indeed, massage, head repositioning efforts, and posture exercises are all used as therapies for vertigo relief, both for short-term and chronic vertigo.

In addition to one’s personal spatial balance, consideration should also be given to one’s balance with the world. In today’s fast-paced, modern world, most people often feel out of balance. In fact, a Google search of “how to find balance in your life” will offer you more than 300 million search results. Which of these results might actually answer the question is debatable, but it certainly signals a massive demand for finding balance.

The causes of such modern-day personal imbalances are also debatable, but we are constantly pulled in so many different directions by competing demands on our time, as well as by competing appeals that seek to capture our attention and influence how we spend our time and money. Rather than focusing on what’s truly important in life, many people are constantly in a virtual tizzy, trying to keep up with the fast-paced, superficial changes to make sure they don’t miss out on what life has to offer. Much of this is driven by near-constant market manipulation that feeds what becomes for many an addictive way of life. From worrying about style and self-image to social media popularity, to getting hold of the latest gadgets or watching all of the recent trending hits on Netflix or Amazon, who has time to pause and smell the proverbial roses?

And we would posit that taking regular time to smell those proverbial roses, or otherwise to “just be” in the world without succumbing to the many superficial distractions of the modern world, is an important vehicle for retaining at least some balance in life. We also assume that, as happens with internal vestibular system-related imbalance, this real-world imbalance creates a variety of physiological and psychological stressors that can also cause and exacerbate vertigo. 

There could be other reasons that drive vertigo into someone’s head—whether on an episodic or persistent basis—but we believe we’ve, for the most part, detailed the known and suspected causes and exacerbating factors. If you’re struggling with vertigo or have been unnerved by an episodic onset case, by all means, seek medical guidance. But also consider any potential non-medical triggers that may be impacting your inner balance and your relationship with life itself.       

 

Sources:

Joshua M. Ammerman, MD. “Is Your Cell Phone Killing Your Back?” Aug. 12, 2019. Spine Universe. Retrieved at: https://www.spineuniverse.com/wellness/ergonomics/your-cell-phone-killing-your-back

Giovanni Bertolini and Dominik Straumann. “Moving in a Moving World: A Review on Vestibular Motion Sickness. Feb. 15, 2016, Frontiers in Neurology. Retrieved from: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4753518/

Alexandre Bisdorff, Gilles Bosser, et al. “The epidemiology of vertigo, dizziness, and unsteadiness and its links to co-morbidities. March 22, 2013. Frontiers in Neurology. Retrieved from: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fneur.2013.00029/full

Seong Chin. “Visual vertigo: Vertigo of oculomotor origin.” July 2018. Medical Hypotheses. Retrieved at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306987718301324

Pete Egoscue. “What Causes Vertigo? How Posture Plays a Role.” Aug. 23, 2016. Sonima. Retreived at: https://www.sonima.com/fitness/what-causes-vertigo/

Caroline Gurvich, Jerome J. Maller, et al. “Vestibular insights into cognition and psychiatry.” Nov. 6, 2013. Brain Research. Retrieved from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006899313012134

Timothy C. Hain, MD. “Epidemiology of Dizziness.” Jan. 1, 2020 (last modified). Chicago Dizziness and Hearing. Retrieved at: http://dizziness-and-balance.com/disorders/dizzy_epi.html

Timothy C. Hain, MD. “Unlocalized and Psychogenic Dizziness.” 2019. Chicago Dizziness and Hearing. Retrieved at: https://dizziness-and-balance.com/practice/approach/unlocalized.htm

James D. Hogue. “Office Evaluation of Dizziness.” 2015. Georgia Campus, Philadelphia College of Osteopathic Medicine. Retrieved at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0095454315000159?via%3Dihub

Ali Maloney. “Getting diagnosed with a chronic disease with no treatment or cure is like entering a Kafka novel.” Feb. 20, 2017. Quartz. Retrieved at: https://qz.com/909898/getting-diagnosed-with-a-chronic-disease-with-no-treatment-or-cure-is-like-entering-a-kafka-novel/

Michael Strupp, Mathew J. Thurtell, Asef G. Shaikh, et al. “Pharmacotherapy of vestibular and ocular motor disorders, including nystagmus.” April 2, 2011. Journal of Neurology. Retrieved at: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00415-011-5999-8

Rand Swenson. “Disorders of the Nervous System.” 2008. Dartmouth Medical School. Retrieved at: http://www.dartmouth.edu/~dons/part_2/chapter_14.html#chpt_14_introduction

 

 

Your Potential Descendancy from a World Conquering Postmaster General

Your Potential Descendancy from a World Conquering Postmaster General

Posted on by • Posted in Humor, Odds & Ends (or maybe just drivel) • Tagged , , , , , • Leave a comment

—May 5, 2020

Do you have world conqueror genes coursing through your blood? Let’s consider the possibility:

  • Alexander the Great?—While his only legitimate child died at age 13, it is possible that he sired some illegitimate children during his extensive travels.
  • Julius Caesar?—Same, with no known legitimate children, but perhaps some seed spreading while on any number of expeditions.  
  • Napoleon Bonaparte—while his one legitimate child—Napoleon II—died childless (Napoleon III being a cousin), Bonaparte did have at least two acknowledged illegitimate sons, both of whom have a few living descendants. Thus, there is a slight chance that you could be a direct descendant from one of these Bonaparte trysts.

Look East for Your Possible World Conquering Ancestor?

That all said, Napoleon’s blood line, as well as that of just about all other historically significant figures, has got nothing on Genghis Kahn. In fact, about one out of every 200 men alive today are descended from the Great Khan—that is, about 19.5 million men around the world (though most live in Mongolia and surrounding countries).

With six Mongolian wives and more than 500 concubines, the Mongol terror was a baby making machine. Researchers have identified a Y-chromosome sequence believed to be from the Great Khan that is present in 8% of men in 16 population groups spanning Asia. If you’re not from Asia, there’s still hope, though, as the sequence is found in about 0.5% of men in the rest of the word. And your odds of having that world-conquering blood may be enhanced should you have red hair and green eyes, as a Persian chronicler described Super G with those distinctive characteristics, which were present among the ethnically diverse Mongols of that time.

What Was Your Potential Ancestor Like?   

Born around 1162, young G had a rough childhood that included the murder of his father, his family’s exile from his tribe, and a stint as a slave for a rival tribe. But by his early 20s, he had established himself as a strong warrior and leader, and by 1206 had confederated the Mongol steppe tribes under his leadership. He quickly set about meeting the neighbors, and, up until his death in 1227 introduced himself to people from as far east as Korea to as far west as Kiev Russia (his son, Kublai, would subsequently say hello to Europeans proper).

Not that anyone in his path wanted to say hello to the Great Khan and his horde, as historians believe his world tour may have been responsible for the deaths of up to 40 million people, or more than 10 percent of the world’s population at the time (guess he needed to make room for his offspring). But Super G wasn’t all badness. Those who did not resist and gave freely of their possessions generally kept their lives. An early proponent of religious tolerance, he passed religious freedom laws and tax exemptions for places of worship. He brought order, stability, and free trade to the silk road, and developed an extensive postal system, an early form of the Pony Express.

Of course, any interest you might have in being a Genghis Kahn descendent is likely stoked more by his world conquering creds than that of perhaps being the world’s first Postmaster General.  

Complaining About the Weather While Awaiting the Season’s Start

Complaining About the Weather While Awaiting the Season’s Start

Posted on by • Posted in Assorted Work • Tagged , , , , • 3 Comments

—June 7, 2016

It has been a strange and slow-starting season. Already getting deep into June and I’ve only sailed once, one quick sail to bring the boat around from the marina to my dock.

Unheard of…. Well, at least in the fourteen years I’ve been living up here on the coast of Canada’s “Ocean Playground.” Normally I would have been out on the water at least a half-dozen times by now, and some years it was more than a dozen.

Heck, I haven’t even done my annual spring every-inch clean of the cabin’s interior, oiled the teak, washed the cushions or stowed the two truckloads of gear. In short, the boat might as well be up on the hard.

I could blame it on my especially heavy workload, but that would be a stretch as I’ve never let work keep me from slipping out on a fine day for an afternoon’s sail. No, it’s been the elusiveness of any such fine days hitting the shoreline. I think there have been a grand total of two this spring.

One was the day I brought my boat over from the marina, a rather quick and hurried journey due to having to spend most of that day trying to jury rig a fix for the floating dock in the hopes of getting one more season out of it. A jury rig that is now looking doubtful and will undoubtedly require more precious time away from sailing.

The other perfect day was devoted to the yard. Neglected all season due to work and weather—the grass was reaching near knee high. Sailing or yard work? It was a tough call, and yard work won out as the grounds have never looked so unsightly. Good timing as we’ve had nothing but rain and thick fog since, and the yard is already due another mowing.

Rain, fog and high winds. Oh, and cold. Very cold. So cold that the heating oil truck is still making the rounds. So cold that freshly planted annuals have been taken by frost. So cold that some of the hardy sailors who braved the foul weather of the first of the season’s Thursday evening racing series said it was the coldest inshore race they’d ever sailed. It was warmer here on Christmas day, a record-breaker by at least two dozen degrees, and a day truly suggestive of climate change.

But we should be used to the rain, fog and cold temperatures. Nova Scotia is known for them. Nevertheless, Nova Scotia is also known for the expression, “If you don’t like the weather wait five minutes,” because the weather generally changes so frequently. And yes, I’ve heard the expression claimed by New Englanders, too, but the weather here truly changes quite frequently at an instant.

Just not lately….

Seven-day forecast calls for six days of clouds, rain and showers with temperatures warming up a bit with a range between the mid-40s to one day in the low-60s; and one potentially sunny day with a possible high nearing 70 degrees.

Anyhow, don’t listen to me. My wife would tell you that I bitch about the weather every season and always claim that I don’t get enough sailing time.

I’ll admit to complaining about the weather too much, but truly do not get enough sailing time. I mean, there’s no such thing as too much sailing…that is, unless it’s blowing a prolonged cold rainy gale right on the nose. 

—This was supposed to have been published by slidemoor.com, but guess their southern readers didn’t want to hear about cold-weather boating. Oh, and am pleased to report that the weather has now turned beautiful and finally had a great day of sailing.

What This Sailor Wants for Christmas

What This Sailor Wants for Christmas

Posted on by • Posted in Assorted Work • Leave a comment

Along with my personal blog, I write blogs for several other websites. This is a blog I recently wrote for a boating website client. 

–December 16, 2015

Christmas is in the air and Santa Claus has undoubtedly checked off “who’s naughty and who’s nice” on his annual gift list. And naturally most avid boaters received a “nice” check by their names. But now Santa has to figure out what to get these boater(s).

If the boaters on his list don’t already have one, Santa could always consider surprising them with a SlideMoor docking system. Barring that, the options are almost limitless. Boaters tend to love boating gear and all things “nautical,” and most keep a running list of “gear” they’d love to own. Boating gear is continuously evolving and new gear seems to enter the market throughout the year, as evidenced by boating magazines which tend to feature a “new gear” section in every issue. In short, there’s such a plethora of nautical gift options spanning all price ranges that Santa may feel overwhelmed trying to pick out the perfect gift for each of those boaters on his list.

So, Santa, to give you some inspiration let me tell you what this avid boater would like to find under his Christmas tree (and yes, I’ve been a very good boy this year):

  • SALCA (Sacrificial Anode Line Cutter Assembly)—Overall I don’t tend to run afoul of stray lines that get wrapped around the propeller, say in a mooring field or from wayward lobster or crab traps? But last April, right after launching…well, I got to find out what hypothermia is when I had to free the prop from an unmarked mooring line. Some line cutting systems are rather expensive, but Sea Shield Marine has apparently come up with a cost-effective, easy to install line cutter that is combined with a sacrificial anode to protect against corrosion.
  • Dyson DC34 Cordless Vacuum—A vacuum cleaner? Yes, Santa, most cruising sailboats are filled with nooks, crannies and wonky spaces that make cleaning them more difficult than cleaning the house. I’ve got a cordless vac, but it just doesn’t have enough power to get up all the crud, and from what I hear this Dyson model is one of the most powerful handheld vacuums available.
  • Nokero Solar Light Bulb—Power consumption is always of concern on my sailboat, and I am always pleased to find ways to conserve power. Thus, Nokero’s Solar Light Bulb, which can provide 20 lumens of light for up to four hours (10 lumens for seven hours) on a day’s solar charge, would be a hit. Then again, if you’re feeling really generous, you might consider getting me a complete solar power system for the boat.
  • AIS System—Speaking of generous (and I have been really good this year), I’ve been wanting an Automatic Identification System receiver for some time now. Prices have been coming down, and you’ll have the added satisfaction of knowing that you’re helping keep this sailor safe while he’s offshore.
  • Simrad Autopilot—In case you didn’t know, my autohelm bit the dust this fall. And while the wheel-mounted models work pretty well, Simrad’s AP24 cable-mounted system is reportedly the most sophisticated and efficient small-boat pilot on the market.
  • Inflatable Dinghy—Well, Santa, my Avon rubber Dinghy has been in the family now for more than 40 years and is starting to show her age. Or, more specifically, starting to lose her air….
  • Shannon 43—Speaking of age, my beautiful sailboat is nearing her 40th birthday, and, well, I’m just not sure she has it in her anymore to undertake that circumnavigation we’ve been dreaming about for so long. The Shannon line is the perfect boat for such a circumnavigation, and I’m pretty sure you could find a used one for me for a half-million dollars or so….

Oh, and have I mentioned how exceptionally good I’ve been this year?

Leaked Report Highlights Problems With Recently Built Condos

Leaked Report Highlights Problems With Recently Built Condos

Posted on by • Posted in Assorted Work • Tagged , , • Leave a comment

–November 4, 2015

The CBC this morning reported on a leaked Nova Scotia government report that cites widespread workmanship problems with numerous condominiums built in the province during the past 10 years. The government study, which examined 42 condo buildings, found that 79 percent of the buildings experienced at least one defect from the original construction, and that defects have caused individual unit owners in those buildings an average of up to $20,000 to repair. The report, which reportedly called some developers “unscrupulous,” also pointed to a noticeable lack of any accountability process that would force builders to rectify discovered defects.

Condo Nova strives to know everything about condominium buildings in the Halifax region, and works to steer its clients away from buildings with known or rumored problems. Condo Nova also supports enactment of a province-wide mandatory multi-year warranty for the protection of new condo owners.

The study was conducted in 2013 for the former NDP Service Nova Scotia minister, John MacDonell, who was responsible for Nova Scotia’s Condominium Act. It is unclear why the report’s findings were never released or otherwise utilized by the government.

While the report does not name developers or the condominium corporations now responsible for the 42 surveyed buildings, it clearly suggests that some developments were plagued with poor workmanship and calls into question the lack of government oversight, in relation to both inspections of new buildings and protection of new condominium owners.

Among the more egregious findings in the report, according to the CBC was a row house-style condo building in Halifax in which balconies had not been properly affixed and could be pulled away from the building by hand. In another building the fireplace flues were installed with flammable materials and many units were subjected to rainwater leakage. Stove and dishwasher outlets were installed without proper junction boxes in another building, which almost caused a fire when a dishwasher leaked and caused a short circuit.

The report cited a lack of coordination between project managers, supervisors, subcontractors and labourers as being problematic, and noted that there “is evidence that unskilled and perhaps unlicensed personnel are performing critical installations even where the law requires licensed personnel.”

Along with 33 of the 42 buildings surveyed experiencing some kind of defect:

  • 29 (69 percent) were subject to varying degrees of premature building envelope failure, with seven of these subject to a near-total building envelope failure.
  • 15 (46 percent) experienced premature electrical, heating, ventilation or plumbing system failures.
  • seven were subject to latent defects in their structural components and/or fire safety.
  • And, 15 (36 percent) suffered from multiple defects among those mentioned above.

The report noted that while two developers agreed to alleviate problems when they were brought to their attention, many others did not. Condo corporation efforts to sue some of these other developers failed because the builders had already shut down their businesses. The majority of condo corporations did not seek legal action against the developers due to prohibitive costs.

The CBC story and radio broadcast on the report can be found here: Nova Scotia condos hurt by widespread workmanship woes: leaked report. Condo Nova has not been able to access the complete report.

—Originally published in CondoNova.com Nov. 4, 2015

Please Add Me to the Hit List!

Please Add Me to the Hit List!

Posted on by • Posted in Favorite Blogs, Religion • Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , • Leave a comment

–Sept. 29, 2015

Dear Bangladeshi Islamic Extremists (members of Ansarullah Bangla Team and Ansar al Islam Bangladesh): 

I understand that you have expanded your hit list of bloggers to be killed due to their written commentary that you believe to be offensive to Islam. So far this year you have successfully butchered four Bangladeshi bloggers for their writing, and have now expanded your hit list to call for any and all true-faith Muslims to assassinate nine bloggers living in Europe and North America. 

Please add me to this list. While I do not wish to insult your faith or reverence for Allah, Muhammad and Islam in general, I question and take issue with your interpretation of your holy book, the Quran. I believe that any man should be able to question and debate your interpretation without repercussion. I also do not believe that Allah would sanction your killing of other Muslims, or anybody, for that matter, for challenging your interpretation. Nor do I believe that Allah would sanction the killing of anyone for drawing a cartoon of Muhammad or otherwise insulting Islam.

Allah is supposed to be God, for Christ’s sake, and there’s no way his proverbial skin could be that thin. If Allah truly has an issue with people questioning his Godliness, making jokes about Muhammad, or portraying him as a cartoon figure, I am positive that he can deal with the  miscreants in his own Godlike fashion.   

So, in protest of your blatant killing for the sake of religious censorship, I want you to look at this photo. That guy whoseth-4 12.17.01 PM head is in the toilet, I believe that to be Muhammad. Therefore I am obviously guilty of blasphemy and of offending Allah–peace be upon him–and therefore should be hacked to bits.

Come and get me.

Sincerely,

M.J. Moye

Muslims tend to take great offense at those who criticize Islam, question their interpretation of the Quran, or draw images of Muhammad. Many take their self-righteous sense of being offended so severely that they believe killing people who commit these offenses is justified. And while the majority of Muslims do not actively support such action, does not their noticeable lack of opposition to the practice mark them as silent accomplices?

What of the murder of innocent writers and cartoonists? Is that not the far greater offense? Sure the Western world expresses a brief surge of outrage every time writers and cartoonists are killed, but the media is generally loath to reprint or discuss the subject matter that led to the killing. Oh, we don’t want to offend the Muslim community, is the usual excuse.

Worse than that, though, is when the Western media is cowed by Islamic threats and self-censors material that may be deemed offensive to Islam. Remember Episodes 200 and 201 of South Park? Broadcast in 2010, it featured a character in a bear costume named Muhammad. A radical Muslim group sent South Park producers and broadcasters a photo of the nearly decapitated anti-Muslim Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh, with a warning that they would meet a similar fate. Muhammad was quickly censored out of the episodes.

Pussies!

In response a woman named Molly Norris organized an “Everybody Draw Mohammad Day” in support of free speech. The effort drew tremendous support, but also drew significant opposition from both Muslims and those of the political correct persuasion who felt the effort was a needless affront to the Muslim community. Meanwhile Ms. Norris was put on an Islamic hit list, and her name was later added to the same hit list that targeted Charlie Hebdo in Paris. She remains in hiding to this day.

Unreal!  

This is America, where freedom of speech is supposed to be sacrosanct. We’re going to let ourselves be bullied into limiting this freedom? We’re going to cave for the sake of Muslim sensibilities, the same sensibilities that believe murder for religious ideals is perfectly OK?

Screw that!

As I said in my letter to the hit-list Muslims, I do not wish to insult their religion. However, if they are going to target innocent writers and cartoonists and mark them for death for offending Islam, then I will join with those same writers and cartoonists. Plain and simply, religious beliefs that invoke murder or other egregious actions do not trump freedom of thought and speech.

And just to make clear that this blog and blogger are not specifically anti-Islam, the above letter would be proffered to any radical Christian groups that target people for insulting Jesus Christ and Christianity. But to my knowledge there aren’t any.

However, if there are any Radical Christians out there advocating death for those who insult Jesus, well, see that photo near the top of the page…that guy getting a swirly is Jesus.

Come and get me!

So, dear reader, what do you think? Are you willing to add your name to the list? Hash it out!

—Originally published Sept. 28, 2015 by Hash It Out!

Alabama Sorority Censored by Politically Correct Pressure

Alabama Sorority Censored by Politically Correct Pressure

Posted on by • Posted in Favorite Blogs, Political Correctness • Tagged , , , • Leave a comment

—August 26, 2015

The potentates of political correctness have won another round in their battle to make the world all-inclusive and ensure that no one is ever offended. The University of Alabama’s Alpha Phi sorority this week removed a recruitment video from You Tube, bowing to political correct commentary that deemed the video highly offensive because of its lack of racial diversity, objectification of women, and emphasis on sorority fun rather than service. Prior to removal the video had received more than 700,000 views on You Tube.

Leading the charge in condemning the video was a “guest opinion” writer on AL.com named A.L. Bailey, a “writer, magazine copy editor, and online editor who lives in Hoover.” Bailey called the video a “parade of white girls and blonde hair dye, coordinated clothing, bikinis and daisy dukes, glitter and kisses, bouncing bodies, euphoric hand-holding and hugging, gratuitous booty shots, and matching aviator sunglasses. It’s all so racially and aesthetically homogeneous and forced, so hyper-feminine, so reductive and objectifying, so Stepford Wives; College Edition. It’s all so … unempowering.” Bailey further concluded that the sorority video “is doing more damage to women than presidential candidate Donald Trump.”

Bailey’s opinion piece spurred a flurry of negative news articles about the video–with “salacious” being the most widely used adjective to describe it–along with online commentary decrying the video for all of the appropriate politically correct reasons. Though now that the video has been removed, online commentary has swung in defence of the sorority and its video, and anger at the purveyors of political correctness.

Additionally, a new AL.com “guest opinion” writer, Lauren Hathaway, countered Bailey’s arguments by calling them superficial, as well as “mean and shallow,” among other things. Hathaway notes that the video might be “annoying,” but is not “offensive,” and encourages the girls of Alpha Phi to “keep embracing the glitter and kisses and ‘euphoric hand-holding and hugging’ ifalpha-phi-alabama that’s part of who you all are.” Hathaway further concludes that the video’s apparent ‘hyper-femininity” is not a threat to feminism, and points out that the girls of Alpha Phi are “clearly having a good time,” which is the “whole point” of the video.

While Ms. Hathaway has done an admirable job refuting the political correct arguments regarding the video’s alleged objectification of women,” the issue of racial diversity–or lack thereof–remains.

It is true, no black sorority sisters are seen in the video. Does this mean that the University of Alabama chapter of Alpha Phi is a bastion of Aryan racists?

Unclear, but we did examine some random videos promoting traditionally black sororities and couldn’t find a white face anywhere–can’t say we’ve ever heard any outcry about this lack of racial diversity.

So, is the relative lack of racial diversity in the university Greek system a crime? Does the U.S. Government need to call out the National Guard and enforce desegregation of fraternities and sororities nationwide? And at what point will each fraternity and sorority in the Greek system be deemed truly racially diverse?

Those with a politically correct bent are easily offended, so we’d better make sure these social institutions are representative and inclusive of everyone, racial or otherwise.

Thus, in Alpha Phi’s next video we’d better see at least eight African-Americans, three Mexicans, two Chinese, two Pakistanis, two Indians, one Slav, one Vietnamese, one Korean, one Japanese, one Tibetan, one American Indian, one Inuit, two Muslims, one Jew, one Hindu, one Buddhist, four lesbians and one transgendered person. The new video also needs to include at least three people with visible physical disabilities, and seven people who would be considered clinically obese.

While 100 percent of the Alpha Phi women portrayed in the objectionable, now-removed You Tube video would likely be considered physically beautiful, this attribute is objectifying and demeaning to those who may lack physical beauty characteristics or are otherwise unsure about their own physical attractiveness. Therefore, only 15 percent of those filmed in any new video, should be those who a majority of people would conclude are physically beautiful.

Oh, and in the interest of the politically correct goal of gender neutrality, Alpha Phi should no longer be be referred to as a sorority, and its population should include an equal proportion of males.

Finally, all new videos will strictly conform to the idea of the Greek system being a service organization, and no portrayals of fun or frivolity of any sort will be allowed, as fun and frivolity might be considered offensive to those with a more serious nature and outlook on life.

Welcome to the politically correct brave new world….

–Originally published in Hash It Out! on August 26, 2015

Iconic Lion Slain by Dentist, Moronic Human Killed by Gator

Posted on by • Posted in Favorite Blogs, Social Commentary • Tagged , , • Leave a comment

–July 28, 2015

Cecil is dead.

Who? you ask.

Cecil. Cecil the Lion.

OK….

cecilthelion-e1438117510903Cecil the Lion made international headlines this week after being killed illegally in Zimbabwe by an American dentist who allegedly paid about $55,000 for the privilege. Cecil was Zimbabwe’s most famous lion and a star attraction at Hwange National Park. The 13-year-old lion was also part of an ongoing Oxford University research project and was wearing a GPS collar to trace his movements. The hunter and/or his guides reportedly tried, but failed, to destroy the collar, which researchers used to trace Cecil’s last movements, and ultimately discover his headless and skinned body.

The lion was apparently shot by a crossbow after being lured out of the park at night by the guides who dragged a dead animal from their vehicle. The dentist, Walter Palmer, hit Cecil with a crossbow bolt, but the injured lion managed to get away, only to be tracked down 40 hours later and dispatched with a gun shot. Two Zimbabwean guides have reportedly been arrested, while authorities are still searching for a third. No word yet on whether charges will be laid against the Minnesota dentist.

A spokesperson for Palmer, meanwhile, said that his client is “obviously quite upset over everything.” But we’re not sure if that is just in reference to the flooding of his dental office Facebook page with angry comments and threats, and an online petition demanding justice for Cecil. The petition, which went online this morning, had garnered more than 40,000 signatures by mid day.

The dentist is apparently a well known big game hunter who is in the archery record books for slaying an elk with a bow. He was also reportedly arrested by Wisconsin wildlife officials in 2008 for illegal bear hunting. A Flickr photo album by Trophy Hunt America contains shots of Palmer posing with a variety of dead animals, including a white rhinoceros, of which there are only about 20,000 left in the world.

Conservationists in Zimbabwe and around the world are bemoaning the loss of Cecil, noting that Cecil is the 23 or 24th collared lion to be killed in or near Hwange. Conservationists have pointed out that the dentist paid just $50,000 to kill an animal that was worth millions of dollars in tourism revenues. Along with Cecil, the illegal hunt also likely means the death of Cecil’s six young cubs, as the next Alpha male will probably kill them so as to assert his own bloodline within Cecil’s former pride.

Well, with one (plus six for the cubs) strike against the animal kingdom, I suppose we should balance this out with a strike against the human kingdom. Earlier this month in Texas, 28-year-old Tommie Woodward was killed by a large alligator. Woodward was reportedly killed by the  large gator after jumping into a bayou marked with signs stating: “No Swimming–Alligators!”  Not only did Woodward ignore the signs, but a marina employee reportedly told him to “[p]lease do not go swimming, there’s a big alligator out there. Just stay out of the water.”No_Swimming_sign

Woodward’s last words before screaming for help were reportedly, “Fuck the alligators!”

OK, so this doesn’t even nudge the balance beam, but I tried.

–Originally published by Hash It Out!, July 28, 2015.

The Gods Must be Angry With Us…Again!

The Gods Must be Angry With Us…Again!

Posted on by • Posted in Favorite Blogs, Religion • Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , • Leave a comment

—June 11, 2015

Why must the Gods always be so angry with us?

Case in point, Gods in Malaysia were apparently angered by a group of western tourists who stripped naked for a photo session on top of Mount Kinabalu late last month. The tourists’ antics evidently angered the mountain’s sacred ancestral spirits, who in response, cast down an earthquake on the area that killed 16 people (OK, so while not technically “Gods,” any spirit that can invoke a God-like cataclysm is pretty much a God in our book).

Four of the tourists have been arrested by Malaysian authorities, who are reportedly on the hunt for six others (no word yet on whether international arrest warrants have been issued). Pending charges center on public indecency, though local citizens and politicians have been calling for charges that could lead to much more severe penalties, with some of the locals requesting the tourists’ heads.

As is generally the case with all-powerful Gods, the mountain’s sacred spirits remain mute on the issue, and are letting theirAngryGod_answer_1_xlarge actions speak for themselves.

And what of Allah (“In sa Allah!”)?

He seems to have kept his anger in relative check for five centuries, but then started getting all pissed off about 50 years ago, sparked in large part by those Jewish folks who had the audacity to call his sacred land theirs. That ire soon expanded to include those who had the nerve support the Jews, and more recently to his own people, who tick him off for a broad range of reasons–Idolatry, blasphemy, apostasy, adultery, listening to western music, looking at women, shaving, flying kites, to name a few. Most recently, Allah has been casting his holy anger on those foolhardy artists who dare attempt to create his holy likeness.

Allah’s not like most Gods, though, as he does not utilize his power over the elements to inveigh his wrath. Instead he invokes his holy ire through the righteous actions of his most devoted followers. And why not? They can certainly be just as effective as a natural disaster, and they’re becoming so media savvy that the depth of Allah’s anger can truly be conveyed to the masses in color and in almost-real-time.

Jesus (“Praise the Lord!”), while relatively quiet these past few centuries, certainly had his moments.

He seems to be an equal-opportunity wrath dispenser, utilizing both the natural elements and his flock to carry out his righteous anger. Everything from the great plague to any number of earthquakes, tempests, volcanoes and other natural disasters have been attributed to his rage, though in recent centuries less and less so. His people have also been quite effective at holy wrath dispensary. Just ask the ancestors of Muslims, North and South American Indians, Africans and any number of the world’s people who have been slaughtered by Christians in the name of Christ.

How about Jeusus’ Dad (also considered to be the young version of the Hebrew God, Yehova, God of Israel, though not father of Christ)–Wrathful?

You betcha! Can you say “Great Flood” or “Sodom” and “Gomorrah?” Heck, the Old Testament is full of natural cataclysms called down upon us for one reason or another.

Roman Gods? Greek Gods? Egyptian Gods?

Sadists!

And they didn’t even have to be angry…. Perhaps they just liked to practice.

Hellfire and brimstone, what Gods don’t get angry with us?

OK so Buddah tends to be fairly benign, and some of the Hindu Gods don’t seem to have anger issues.

But we’d wager that they all have their moments, too.

Bottom line is that we’d love to see what the Gods might do should they ever be happy with us. But we’re not going to hold our breath….

–Originally published by Hash It Out! on June 11, 2015

China’s Rising Middle Class Giant

China’s Rising Middle Class Giant

Posted on by • Posted in Assorted Work • Tagged , , • Leave a comment
How Big and How Much is He Going to Grow?

Chinese economic numbers have been considered suspect by the west for years, but even  high-level Chinese officials are starting to admit that government figures on GDP growth, fiscal revenues, credit data, and imports/exports are unreliable, at best. “Many of the numbers are watery,” Dong Dasheng, former deputy auditor at China’s National Audit Office, told audience members at an annual meeting of high-level political advisors in Beijing in March. Noting that numbers have long been massaged, Dong said the official 7.4 percent GDP growth rate (lowest one in 24 years) for 2014 is far from the truth, but “relatively more realistic comparing (sic) to the numbers in the past years.”

Despite the likely manipulation of economic numbers, few people will dispute that China’s economy, like its population, is massive. The question is, how big and how much is it going to grow? It’s like trying to calculate the size of a giant by looking at his grainy photographic portrait, and then trying to figure out potential growth by rummaging through his compost bin to determine how much he consumes.

But, no matter what the answer is, a giant is still a giant, and the Chinese middle class has quickly grown into one such giant. Again the question is, how big and how much is it going to grow?

Let’s look at this giant’s portrait and rummage through his compost bin:

To start with we need to determine what constitutes “middle class,” an ambiguous term that can easily be misapplied if its parameters aren’t delineated. Broadly speaking, middle class is the group of people in a society who reside socio-economically between the working class and upper class. In describing the North American middle class social scientists generally apply social aspects–such as educational attainment and type of employment–to the equation. On a strictly monetary basis, social scientists and economists trying to constitute what determines middle class in North America have come up with annual income ranges from $35,000 on up to $150,000.

There is no hard-set definition of what constitutes “middle class” in China, but Helen H. Wang, author of the award-winning book–The Chinese Dream: The Rise of the World’s Largest Middle Class and What it Means for You–defines Chinese middle class as households with a “third of its income available for discretionary spending.” Monetarily, a middle class household would earn somewhere between $10,000 and $60,000 per year, says Ms. Wang.

Global consultant McKinsey & Company, which conducts extensive studies on China’s middle class, believes $9,000 to $34,000 per year constitutes Chinese middle class earnings. Where one lives in China can also dictate middle class standards, as the spending power of the yuan varies widely between regions and between the countryside and urban areas. Thus, someone living in Shanghai needs to earn several thousand dollars more per year to be considered middle class than someone living in a rural village in Qinghai province.

Annual income rates have grown phenomenally in China over the past three decades, with a 10-fold jump between 1980 to 2010. According to an analysis of official government statistics by the China Market Research Group, the average annual disposable income per capita rose from $280 in 1980 to $3,000 in 2010, which put the typical Chinese household at earning about $9,000 per year as of 2010.  As of January 2014, the National Bureau of Statistics of China reported the average annual disposable income per capita at about $4,720, a 57 percent increase from 2010. The World Bank reports that China’s gross national income per capita quadrupled from 2000 to 2013, rising from $2,830 to $11,850.

So, how many Chinese are middle class, and how many will be middle class in the years to come?

Ms. Wang put the number at “more than 300-million” and at “more than the entire population of the United States,” and believes this population will reach 700- to 800-million by 2022. These indefinite figures have been bandied about by numerous other sources over the past three years, likely due in large part to the extensive media coverage Ms. Wang has received since the release of her book.

While not putting a specific number on today’s Chinese middle class, and, like Ms. Wang in referring to it as larger than the total U.S. population, McKinley & Company believes that China’s middle class will number 630 million by 2022. This equates to roughly 75 percent of the urban population and 45 percent of the country’s entire population.

The Brookings Institution, a highly influential Washington, DC think tank, put China’s middle class at 157-million people as of 2009. Brookings’ “absolute approach” for defining middle class uses the delineation of “households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person in purchasing power parity terms.”

In its report–China’s Emerging Middle Class: Beyond Economic Transformation–Brookings reported that China’s middle class represented roughly 12 percent of the total population as of 2009, but that China’s middle class was on the cusp of expanding exponentially due to China’s    rapid growth rate and because a significant proportion of the population was “close to the lower-bound threshold of [Brookings’] definition of the middle class.” Given this assessment, Brookings believes China’s middle class will consist of about 42 percent of the population by 2020, and over 70 percent of the population by 2030.

Using these percentages with Chinese population projections puts the number of middle class in China at roughly 575-million by 2020, and more than 960-million by 2030.

Ernst & Young Global Limited’s Middle Class Growth in Emerging Markets report has projections similar to Brookings, placing China’s middle class as of 2010 at about 150-million, with this number rising to almost 500-million by 2020, and almost reaching 1-billion by 2030.

All of these projections about the size of China’s middle class are “giant-like,” to say the least. But will these projections be reached?

Brookings brings up several uncertainties that could impede the growth of China’s middle class, foremost being whether China can continue generating economic growth at the levels its been achieving for the past two decades. Noting that China’s “labor-Screen Shot 2015-11-10 at 5.24.33 PMintensive export-led growth…is showing signs of strain,” Brookings suggests that China needs “a new growth strategy” that encourages much greater domestic consumption. “The great uncertainty for China is whether its current growth is sufficiently robust to carry it forward until the middle class consumption engine can start to fire, or whether growth will stall before the middle class really matures.”

Ms. Wang, while more optimistic, addresses this issue as well by saying that Chinese households, which traditionally save 20 to 25 percent of their annual earnings, need to be encouraged to save less and spend more. Ms. Wang’s optimism is driven in large part by her observation that China’s younger generations are “consuming like crazy.”

An observation shared by McKinsey & Company, which considers the younger generation born between 1990 and 2010 to be the most westernized to date. The company expects that this generation–three times larger than the U.S. Baby Boomers who drove U.S. consumption for years–will double their share of consumer demand within 10 years.

Such observations are supported by recent data, such as U.S. exports to China growing from $27-billion in 2003 to $124-billion in 2014, or the fact General Motors sells more cars and trucks in China than in the U.S., whereas just 11 years ago the ratio was one vehicle for every 10 sold in the U.S.

Another factor to consider about the Chinese middle class is that it may be bigger than pundits think, and wealthier. As with their government, Chinese people are known to be “watery” when reporting financial numbers. Undeclared wealth is called “gray money” in China and it represents the proceeds from corruption (considered by some as rampant in China), income earned from “gray” areas of the economy, and unreported income such as year-end bonuses that most Chinese do not report. A 2012 survey by the China Society of Economic Reform concluded that gray income accounts for $1 trillion per year, or 12 percent of China’s economy.

But what of the elephant in the Chinese living room (pardon the pun) that no one seems to notice. That being the lop-sided demographics of the country that make it the fastest aging country in the world by median age, and estimated to become among the oldest by median age within 20 years.

China’s economic success has been largely driven by its vast pool of labor, but the water in that pool reached its peak and is now starting to slowly but steadily evaporate. According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, the country’s potential labor force shrunk for the first time in modern history in 2012, an emerging trend that is expected to continue for at least the next 20 years due to the country’s “one-child” population control strategy.

That one-child policy, according to Chinese government statistics, has kept the country’s population in check by a factor of 400-million people. And while that had served as an economic accelerant of sorts because those additional people did not need to be fed, clothed, educated or housed, it also means that many fewer consumers, wage earners and taxpayers to help continue driving the country’s economy.

China’s lop-sided demographics suggest that the coming years will bring a dramatic decline in the cheap labor market that has served as the primary driver of the Chinese economy. At the same time China will see a dramatic increase in its elderly population, which earns little, spends little and pays little in taxes, yet will need much in the way of government services and health care.

It remains unclear how much this elephant in the living room is going to impact the economy and how much it may slow the expansion of the middle class. But it’s an elephant. It may be sleeping now, but when it wakes up people are going to notice.

–Presented to SPI June 2015

__________________________________________________

Sources:

Wang, Helen H. The Chinese Dream: The Rise of the World’s Largest Middle Class and What It Means to You. Bestseller Press, 2010, 2012.

Kharas, Homi, and Geoffrey Gertz. China’s Emerging Middle Class; Beyond Economic Transformation. Brookings Institution Press, 2010.

Barton, Dominic, Yougang Chen, and Amy Jin. Mapping China’s Middle Class. Insights & Publications. McKinsy.com. June 2013.

Chen, Lu. Why Chinese Economic Data Can’t be Trusted. China Business & Economy. TheEpochTimes.com. March 2015.

Kuhn, Anthony. Lure of China’s Gray Economy Reaches Rich and Poor. National Public Radio. NPR.org. January 2014.

The World Bank. World DataBank: World Development indicators. databank.worldbank.org. 2015.

China Profile. Median Age of the Population in China, India, Europe and the United States of America, 1950-2100. China-Profile.com. June, 2011.